As we all know Ubisoft is NOTORIOUS for downgrading products and the first Division was VERY different after release and significantly downscaled. I can say however that having played quite a lot of the first Division that everything in that trailer concerning combat and the UI (including the map which they got blasted for faking in the first Division trailers) is very, very much like the Division that is available now. The environment settings like lighting, etc may change (ok will almost assuredly change), but the core of it is probably close to how it will look and play.
Having said that The Division is a bullet sponge, cover shooter... to the point that I think the enemies shown in the new trailer are purposefully much weaker than they will be in the actual game.
The setting of playing in Washington DC and being able to play in bright Summer instead of the snowy winter of NYC appeals to me a lot. My wife and I spent our honeymoon in DC (not Cancun or Hawaii) so I love that setting.
And all this science, I don't understand... It's just my job, five days a week